N※N

Top and Current
Source : (remove) : Foreign Policy
^{RSS • JSON • XML • CSV}

Top and Current
Source : (remove) : Foreign Policy
^{RSS • JSON • XML • CSV}

Myanmars Election Has Chinas Fingerprints All Over It

Myanmar's Junta Pushes for Elections Amidst Ongoing Turmoil and China's Shadow

In the volatile landscape of Myanmar's politics, the military junta led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has announced plans to hold long-delayed elections in 2025, a move that underscores the regime's desperate bid to legitimize its rule following the 2021 coup. This development comes against a backdrop of escalating civil conflict, a protracted state of emergency, and increasing international isolation, with China emerging as a pivotal player in the junta's survival strategy. The announcement, made amid widespread skepticism from opposition groups and international observers, raises profound questions about the future of democracy in a nation torn apart by violence and ethnic divisions.

The 2021 coup, which ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), plunged Myanmar into chaos. Min Aung Hlaing, the architect of the takeover, justified the action by alleging widespread electoral fraud in the 2020 elections, claims that were widely dismissed by independent observers. Since then, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has imposed a state of emergency that has been repeatedly extended, allowing it to consolidate power through brutal crackdowns on dissent. Thousands have been killed, millions displaced, and resistance forces, including ethnic armed organizations and the People's Defense Force (PDF), have waged a fierce guerrilla war against the junta. The conflict has fragmented the country, with vast swaths of territory slipping from central control, particularly in border regions where ethnic minorities hold sway.

Now, as the junta eyes elections in 2025, it faces immense challenges in organizing a credible vote. The military has been tinkering with electoral laws to favor its proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), while disqualifying opposition figures and parties like the NLD. Min Aung Hlaing has promised a "free and fair" process, but critics argue it's a facade to entrench military dominance. The state of emergency, initially declared for one year, has been extended multiple times, most recently to facilitate preparations for the polls. This extension provides the junta with sweeping powers to suppress opposition, control media, and manipulate voter rolls. International bodies, including the United Nations and ASEAN, have expressed doubts about the feasibility of genuine elections under such conditions, warning that any vote would likely be marred by intimidation and exclusion.

China's role in this unfolding drama cannot be overstated. As Myanmar's northern neighbor and a major economic partner, Beijing has provided crucial support to the junta, viewing stability in Myanmar as essential to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, including pipelines, ports, and infrastructure developments. The article highlights how China has ramped up diplomatic and economic engagement since the coup, offering loans, investment, and even tacit military backing to Min Aung Hlaing's regime. This support is driven by strategic interests: Myanmar serves as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Malacca Strait chokepoint, and hosts key BRI assets like the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines. In return, the junta has granted China concessions in resource extraction, particularly in mining and energy sectors, despite local resistance.

However, China's involvement is not without complications. Beijing has also maintained contacts with ethnic armed groups along the border, such as the United Wa State Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, to protect its interests in a fragmented Myanmar. This hedging strategy reflects China's pragmatic approach: while it prefers a stable junta to safeguard investments, it is wary of the regime's weakening grip. Recent reports indicate that Chinese officials have urged Min Aung Hlaing to accelerate elections as a means to normalize relations and attract foreign investment, potentially easing Western sanctions. Yet, this push has strained relations with resistance forces, who accuse China of propping up the dictatorship.

The proposed elections also intersect with Myanmar's deep-seated ethnic conflicts. The country is home to over 135 ethnic groups, many with their own armed factions that control significant territories. The junta's 2008 constitution, which reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for the military, was designed to prevent any single group from dominating, but it has fueled grievances among minorities. Resistance alliances, such as the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic armies, have boycotted the electoral process, vowing to continue their fight until the military relinquishes power. In regions like Shan, Karen, and Rakhine states, ongoing clashes have displaced hundreds of thousands, making voter registration and polling logistically impossible. The article notes that without a ceasefire or inclusive dialogue, the elections risk exacerbating divisions rather than resolving them.

Economically, Myanmar is in dire straits, with the coup triggering a collapse in foreign investment, rampant inflation, and widespread poverty. The junta's mismanagement has led to fuel shortages, blackouts, and a humanitarian crisis, with over 18 million people in need of aid. China's infusions of capital have provided a lifeline, but they come with strings attached, including debt obligations that could deepen Myanmar's dependency. Western sanctions, imposed by the U.S. and EU, target junta leaders and military-linked enterprises, further isolating the regime. The elections are seen by some as a potential off-ramp for sanctions if they lead to a civilian-led government, but optimism is scarce given the military's history of clinging to power.

Min Aung Hlaing himself remains a controversial figure. Once a relatively obscure general, he has styled himself as Myanmar's savior, but his leadership has been plagued by battlefield setbacks and internal purges. The article delves into his personal ambitions, suggesting that the elections could position him as a civilian president while retaining de facto control through military allies. However, mounting losses to resistance forces, including high-profile defeats in northern Myanmar, have eroded his authority. Desertions within the Tatmadaw and growing disillusionment among rank-and-file soldiers add to the regime's vulnerabilities.

Internationally, the response to the election plans has been muted. ASEAN, under its principle of non-interference, has struggled to mediate, with its five-point consensus plan largely ignored by the junta. The U.S. and its allies continue to support the NUG and impose sanctions, while India, another neighbor, balances engagement with the regime to counter Chinese influence. Russia has emerged as a military supplier to the junta, providing arms and training in exchange for resources.

As 2025 approaches, the elections represent a high-stakes gamble for Min Aung Hlaing. Success could grant the junta a veneer of legitimacy, attracting investment and easing isolation. Failure, through boycotts, violence, or outright rejection, might accelerate the regime's collapse. For the people of Myanmar, caught between authoritarian rule and armed resistance, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty. The article concludes that without genuine reconciliation and international pressure, these elections may only prolong the suffering in a nation yearning for peace and democracy. (Word count: 928)

Read the Full Foreign Policy Article at:
[ https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/08/myanmar-elections-coup-china-min-aung-hlaing-state-of-emergency/ ]