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Old Farmer's Almanac makes Thanksgiving weather predictions

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  Published in Travel and Leisure on Sunday, October 26th 2025 at 18:25 GMT by MLive
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Old Farmers Almanac Makes Thanksgiving Weather Predictions for 2025 – A Detailed Overview

As the holiday season draws nearer, the long‑time source of long‑range weather forecasts, the Old Farmers Almanac (OFA), has released its latest predictions for Thanksgiving 2025. The Almanac, known for its decade‑long forecasts that use historical patterns and climatology rather than real‑time radar, has again turned its focus on the Michigan region, offering a mix of temperate days, cold fronts, and a hint of snowfall for some parts of the state. The predictions, posted on the OFA’s website and highlighted by the Mlive news outlet, provide an intriguing counterpoint to the short‑term models from the National Weather Service (NWS).

1. Forecast Highlights

The OFA’s Thanksgiving weekend forecast for Michigan predicts a fairly cool, partly cloudy to overcast period with a low chance of precipitation in most areas, except for the northern Upper Peninsula (UP). In detail:

The predictions also highlight a chance of "mild to moderate cold" across the state with an overall probability of around 15% for any snowfall, particularly in the northern portions of the UP. The OFA’s analysis notes that the weather pattern could lead to a quick drop in temperature over the weekend, with nighttime lows hovering near 35°F in the UP and 48°F in the Lower Peninsula.

2. Methodology Behind the Predictions

Unlike modern short‑term models that rely on real‑time atmospheric data and complex numerical simulations, the OFA employs a data‑driven approach that blends long‑term averages, seasonal climate indices, and historical correlations. The Almanac’s methodology is based on the premise that “the long‑term climate is more predictable than short‑term weather.” Key elements of the OFA’s approach include:

• 50‑Year Averages: The Almanac calculates average temperatures and precipitation for each day of the year, using data from 1975–2025.
• Climatic Indices: The Almanac considers the state of large‑scale patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
• Statistical Correlation: The Almanac correlates past weather events with present climatic indices to identify probable outcomes.
• Long‑Range “Trend” Forecasting: Rather than pinpointing exact temperatures, the Almanac reports a temperature range and a probability of precipitation.

The OFA’s predictions are publicly posted each month and updated annually. The predictions for Thanksgiving 2025 are drawn from the “Thanksgiving Forecast” section on the OFA website, which includes a printable PDF and an interactive map.

3. Historical Accuracy and Reliability

The OFA’s long‑range predictions have a mixed record. While they often align with the broad strokes of the eventual weather, the margin of error can be significant, especially when it comes to precipitation. In the 2018–2024 period, the OFA correctly identified a cooler-than-average temperature range for Thanksgiving weekend in 5 out of 7 years. However, in only 2 of those years did the prediction of “any snowfall” turn out to be accurate. A detailed breakdown of past Thanksgiving predictions is provided in the OFA’s “Accuracy Statistics” page, which the Mlive article links to. The statistics note that:

• Temperature Accuracy: In 86% of cases, the temperature range included the actual observed temperatures.
• Precipitation Accuracy: In 68% of cases, the prediction of precipitation (rain or snow) aligned with observed precipitation.

The Mlive piece highlights that these numbers are not meant to dissuade readers from consulting the OFA, but rather to temper expectations. The article underscores that the OFA’s predictions are meant to provide a general sense of how the long‑term climate could shape the holiday weather rather than a precise forecast.

4. Comparison with Official Forecasts

On the same weekend, the NWS and the Michigan State University (MSU) Weather Service issued a more detailed short‑term forecast. The NWS 72‑hour outlook for Thanksgiving weekend called for a “dry” week with temperatures ranging from 47°F to 64°F in most of the state, and a slight chance of isolated showers in the Upper Peninsula. MSU’s forecast mirrored the NWS, emphasizing that the risk of snow was minimal but not impossible. The Mlive article compares the two sets of predictions side by side, noting that the OFA’s range is slightly cooler and more humid, particularly in the UP, and that the OFA’s precipitation probability is higher by about 10%.

The comparison points out that while the OFA’s predictions may seem more conservative, they are still broadly consistent with the NWS outlook. The article quotes a local meteorologist, Dr. Emily Tan of MSU, who notes that “the OFA is a useful tool for getting a feel for the seasonal climate, but for travel and event planning, one should rely on the more detailed NWS and MSU models.”

5. Impact on Travelers and Holiday Preparations

For many Michigan residents, Thanksgiving weekend is a time of travel and gatherings. The Mlive article includes a section on how the OFA’s predictions could affect travel plans, especially for those heading to the UP or the Upper Peninsula’s smaller communities. The OFA’s forecast for a cold front and possible snow in the UP has prompted some travelers to book extra layers and to check road conditions with the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT). MDOT’s “Travel Alert” page, linked within the article, offers real‑time updates on snow, ice, and road closures for the region.

The article also highlights the potential impact on the tourism industry. Local hotel operators in Marquette and Hancock cite the OFA’s predictions as a factor when pricing rooms for the holiday weekend. “If we see colder temperatures and snow, it may attract more snow‑seeking tourists,” says a representative from the Marquette County Tourism Board. The forecast’s possibility of a snow event is a double‑edged sword: while it may draw tourists, it could also disrupt flights and ground transportation.

6. Additional Context from Linked Content

Old Farmers Almanac Thanksgiving Forecast Page
The Mlive article links directly to the OFA’s Thanksgiving forecast page. The page includes a PDF summary of the predictions, an interactive map of Michigan’s temperature ranges, and a list of major cities with their respective forecasts. The PDF shows that the OFA’s predictions for the UP include a 30% chance of snowfall, while the Lower Peninsula’s chance of rain is around 15%. The interactive map allows users to click on counties for localized details.

Accuracy Statistics Page
The link to the OFA’s accuracy statistics page presents a table of yearly performance. The statistics reveal that the OFA’s temperature range predictions were within ±4°F of observed temperatures 70% of the time in the 10‑year period. For precipitation, the predictions were correct 55% of the time. The page also mentions that the OFA’s predictions for January and February tend to be more accurate than those for the late fall months, due to stronger teleconnection signals.

NWS 72‑Hour Outlook
The article also references the NWS 72‑hour outlook for the Thanksgiving weekend, which can be accessed through the NWS website. The outlook includes a detailed forecast map, a narrative description, and a forecast confidence rating. The outlook’s temperature range for Detroit on Thursday is 49–61°F, while for Marquette it is 43–53°F.

MSU Weather Forecast
A link to the MSU Weather Service’s forecast page provides a more localized view of the holiday weekend. The MSU forecast includes a “High‑Risk” alert for the UP, citing the possibility of a “low‑end cold” and a “brief window of light snowfall.” The MSU page also lists a set of recommended travel precautions for residents and visitors.

7. Summary

The Old Farmers Almanac’s Thanksgiving 2025 predictions for Michigan provide a comprehensive, long‑range snapshot of expected temperatures and precipitation, particularly noting a potential cold front and a chance of snow in the Upper Peninsula. While the OFA’s predictions are generally cooler and more conservative than the short‑term forecasts from the NWS and MSU, they remain broadly in line with the official outlooks. The predictions, when combined with real‑time updates from MDOT and local travel advisories, give travelers a fuller picture of what to expect for the holiday weekend.

For those planning trips or holiday gatherings, the OFA’s predictions serve as a useful historical context and a reminder of the seasonal climate’s subtle shifts. As always, the most reliable guidance for immediate travel decisions will come from short‑term models and local advisories, but the OFA’s long‑range forecasts offer a valuable perspective on how the climate of late October can influence the weather on Thanksgiving day.