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Stagflation: A Toxic Economic Mix

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  Published in Stocks and Investing on Saturday, January 17th 2026 at 20:46 GMT by The Financial Times

Understanding Stagflation: A Toxic Combination

Stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, describes a particularly insidious economic scenario. It's characterized by slow or nonexistent economic growth paired with persistently rising prices. This combination presents a formidable challenge for policymakers, as traditional remedies for inflation (raising interest rates) risk exacerbating the stagnation, and measures to stimulate growth often fuel further inflation.

The historical precedent for stagflation is relatively sparse. The 1970s stand out as the most prominent example, with the US and numerous other nations experiencing a painful blend of sluggish growth and soaring inflation triggered by events like the oil crisis and self-reinforcing wage-price spirals.

The Perfect Storm: Factors Driving Current Concerns

Several interconnected factors are contributing to the current unease regarding stagflation. The world economy hasn't seen a combination of these challenges in decades, making the prospect particularly worrying. These factors include:

• Persistent Supply Chain Bottlenecks: The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically disrupted global supply chains, creating shortages and driving up prices. While some improvements have been made, these disruptions remain a significant drag on economic activity and a source of inflationary pressure. The long-term effects of these disruptions and potential future shocks (geopolitical instability, climate-related events) continue to impact production and distribution.
• Geopolitical Instability - The War in Ukraine: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped the global energy landscape, particularly impacting Europe. Disruptions to energy supplies have led to a sharp increase in prices, impacting both consumers and businesses, and contributing to broader inflationary trends.
• Energy Price Shocks & Transition Costs: Beyond the direct impact of the war, the global transition to renewable energy sources, while ultimately necessary, involves significant upfront costs and potential supply gaps that can push energy prices higher in the short to medium term. This transition presents unique economic hurdles.
• Tight Labor Markets: Across many developed economies, labor markets remain tight, with more job openings than available workers. This dynamic puts upward pressure on wages, which businesses often pass on to consumers in the form of higher prices, further contributing to inflation.
• Government Debt and Stimulus: Massive government spending during the pandemic, while intended to cushion the economic blow, has contributed to increased levels of public debt and potentially fueled inflationary pressures.

The Central Bank Dilemma: A Tightrope Walk

Central banks are in a precarious position. Their primary tool for combating inflation--raising interest rates--carries the significant risk of triggering a recession. Increasing rates too aggressively could stifle economic growth, while inaction risks allowing inflation to become entrenched. This presents a delicate balancing act, requiring careful calibration and a degree of luck.

"The challenge for central banks is to bring inflation back under control without tipping the economy into a recession," warns economists like Torsten Slok. The effectiveness of interest rate hikes is also being questioned, with some arguing that supply-side factors are the primary drivers of the current inflation, rendering monetary policy less effective.

Looking Ahead: Risks and Uncertainties

While a period of stagflation is not inevitable, the risks are undeniably higher than they have been in decades. Predicting the future is always fraught with uncertainty, and unforeseen events could easily alter the economic trajectory. A prolonged conflict in Ukraine, further supply chain disruptions, or unexpected geopolitical events could all exacerbate the risks. Successfully navigating this period will require coordinated policy responses, international cooperation, and a degree of adaptability that the global economy has yet to fully demonstrate. The "sleepwalking" that economists warn against requires a sharp awakening and decisive action to avert a potentially painful economic future.