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Will mortgage rates keep falling?

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  Published in House and Home on Friday, September 12th 2025 at 19:41 GMT by deseret
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Mortgage Rates Keep Falling, Yet Buyers Still Await Federal Reserve Cuts
September 12, 2025 – Deseret News

For months, the U.S. mortgage market has been riding a gentle downward curve. Nationwide 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgages, once hovering near 7 %, have slipped to the mid‑6 % range, and the 15‑year fixed has eased to the low‑6 % band. That’s good news for prospective homeowners, but it’s not yet enough to convince many of them to lock in a new loan. Instead, a significant segment of the market is waiting—on a dime— for a Federal Reserve policy change that could push rates even lower.

The trend is reflected in the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, both of which report that rate‑lock activity has risen by 12 % compared with the previous month. Yet that uptick is still far short of the surge seen during the summer of 2023, when Fed rate hikes had pushed the average 30‑year rate above 7.5 %. The current market picture is therefore a “waiting game” for borrowers, a narrative that the Deseret article illustrates through a series of interviews and industry insights.

Why the Rate Decline Is Not Enough

1. The Fed’s Stance Remains Dovish but Cautious
The article links to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement released on September 11. The Fed’s “policy committee” reiterated that it will keep the federal funds rate at 5.25 % until “inflation has consistently returned toward the 2 % target over time.” The committee noted that the inflation data—currently at 2.7 % YoY—has begun to trend downward, but the Fed remains cautious about premature cuts that could destabilize the economy.

The Fed’s minutes from the most recent meeting—linked in the article—reveal that the committee expects a potential cut of 25 basis points in the November meeting if the economic outlook remains stable. However, the committee also stresses that a “substantial amount of uncertainty remains” regarding the pace of job growth and supply‑chain pressures.

2. Mortgage Rate Sensitivity to Federal Funds
The Deseret article includes a graphic from Freddie Mac that shows the correlation between the federal funds rate and the average mortgage rate. According to Freddie Mac’s data, for every 25‑basis‑point rise in the fed funds rate, the average 30‑year fixed‑rate rises by roughly 15 basis points. In the current environment, the Fed’s slight tightening (from the 4.75 % range at the start of the year) has already pushed rates back into the 6.5 % range.

But the article highlights that many borrowers still fear that the rate could rise again if the Fed decides to maintain a more hawkish stance, especially if inflation shows any sign of reversal. This uncertainty has made many buyers hesitant to lock in a rate until the Fed’s next decision is made.

Industry Perspectives

John R. Smith, Mortgage Broker, First Union Finance
“Borrowers are very price‑sensitive, and while rates have dipped, they’re still higher than the levels we saw in early 2024,” Smith says. “I hear a lot of people who are in the middle of their credit‑score tightening phase, hoping to catch a cut that might push rates into the low‑6 % range or even below.”

Smith notes that the brokerage has seen a 15 % increase in rate‑lock requests over the past month, yet that volume still reflects a wait-and-see mentality rather than proactive buying. He points out that “the rate‑lock window can be a double‑edged sword: lock too early and you risk missing out on a better rate; lock too late and you risk missing a home.”

Laura Jones, Real‑Estate Analyst, Utah Housing Board
Jones comments on the supply‑side dynamics. “Even though rates are lower, inventory remains tight in the Bay Area and the Wasatch Front.” She links to a local Deseret piece that examines how “limited housing inventory, especially in the 250‑to‑350‑k price range, is keeping buyers in a holding pattern.” In other words, lower rates are not the only factor; buyers also consider home availability.

Financial Planner, Maya Patel
Patel adds a cautionary note. “A 3‑year fixed‑rate mortgage at 6.8 % might look attractive today, but a Fed cut in November could bring that rate down to 6.2 % or lower,” she says. “However, if you lock in now, you have the benefit of a known rate and the opportunity to avoid any possible spikes before the next Fed meeting.”

The Bigger Picture: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook

The article cites recent inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (link included) showing a 2.7 % YoY increase in the Consumer Price Index, down from 3.1 % in August. While this is a positive sign, the Fed’s own research—presented in a recent speech by Jerome Powell at the New York Federal Reserve—emphasizes that the target inflation rate is 2 %. The difference underscores the Fed’s cautious stance: “It may be too early to consider rate cuts.”

The article also references a recent HUD report that shows a 4 % rise in mortgage‑loan applications for first‑time buyers in September compared to September 2024. That figure, while encouraging, still falls short of pre‑COVID‑19 levels. The author argues that the combination of lingering supply constraints and uncertain rate dynamics is contributing to a “buyer’s market that is hesitant to commit.”

Bottom Line

The Deseret article paints a nuanced picture: mortgage rates are on a downward trajectory, but borrowers remain reluctant to lock in until the Fed potentially cuts rates in the near future. Industry experts explain that while rates have become more favorable than last year, the current economic environment—marked by a cautious Fed, modest inflation easing, and persistent supply constraints—keeps the market in a state of waiting.

For buyers, the advice from mortgage professionals is clear: monitor the Fed’s next meeting and keep an eye on how rate changes impact the real estate market. For sellers, the article underscores the importance of pricing homes competitively while remaining mindful of a buyer pool that is still in a state of “rate‑lock indecision.” In the end, the story is one of balance—between a gradual decline in rates and the need for a Fed action that could tip the scales decisively.